The recent economic history of Egypt has been influenced by the development strategy based on import substitution which started in the Pan-Arabism period of Nasser and the socialist movement in the 1950’s. In Nasser period the economy has been shaped with the central system and powerful union elements. Economic nationalism has been the main economic philosophy of the administration.
The “infitah” (openness) implementations of Envar Sedat have constituted a deviation from the policies of the Nasser era. Openness (Infitah) has been successful in establishing a rising bourgeoisie based on international ties and unimportant operations however it has not produced sufficient results in the matters of exports sector and industrial investments.
In early 1990’s, with the support of the EU and the IMF, starting the structural reforms, Hosni Mubarek has aimed to go beyond Infitah. In the framework of the stand by agreement concluded with the IMF in the year 1991, the Reform and Structural Adjustment Program has been started, this program has been supported by the Structural Adjustment Credit of the World Bank. The era in question has witnessed the integration of Egypt with the World markets, the privatization of the State economic enterprises, the increase of interest rates to competitive levels, the partial lifting of imports prohibitions and decreases of petroleum (gas) subsidies and has followed policies towards the deepening of the Infitah.
Today’s greatest problem of the Egyptian economy is the unemployment. With a population of 70 million which has a growth rate of 2 % and the insufficiency of the private sector to produce sufficient demand for workforce, the subject problem continues to exist. Each year approximately 500 thousand persons are added to the workforce. The majority of this workforce is tried to be employed by the State. The number of people working in the public sector has reached 6 million.
Against the unemployment issue, the economic growth remaining between 3-5 % causes the population to become gradually poorer. Consequently the per capita national income has decreased from the level of 1.400 $ in the year 1998/99 to 1.050 $ in 2003/2004. In 2004/2005 the growth in the GDP has reflected itself positively on per capita income, this value has risen up to the level of 1.323 $.
In order to alleviate the issues of the poor people the state provides serious subsidies from the budget to basic products like gasoline, medicine, bread, cooking fat. Consequently, the budget deficit and internal debts are gradually increasing. The internal and external debts total exceeds the GDP.
Egypt has signed regional and bilateral trade agreements in the context of integration of the Egyptian economy with the world economies. Egypt has bilateral preferred trade agreements with various Arab countries. On the other hand the Arab Common Market between the Arab countries will start to be operative by 1.1.2005. Egypt is a member of COMESA which foresees the establishment of the free market between Eastern and South African countries. Furthermore, in 1.6.2004 the partnership agreement between Egypt-EU has entered into force. The works towards concluding a free trade agreement between Egypt and the USA is continuing.
Egypt, despite having entered 2005 in more positive economic conditions compared to the previous year; the internal and external pressures on the subject of economic reform have continued.
While reform expectancy for better living conditions is at the top of the criticisms directed from the people to the Egyptian administration, the pressure of the USA for more democracy has forced the economy administration of Egypt to take measures that will create new employment availabilities in an extremely fast manner and that will increase income.
The Egyptian administration which targets to support the political reform expectancies with the reforms which will be realized in the economy, after the crisis experienced in 2003 it may be said that in the year 2005 it has even if partially, succeeded in this purpose and it has been successful in putting the economy back on track. More importantly, Egypt has started to be perceived once more as an emerging market among the developing economies and as a result of the increasing liquidity worldwide has started to attract more investment. Anyway, despite the increase of 5 % in the national income in 2005, the fall which has been recorded in the inflation rate from the levels of 14 % to 4 %; it is difficult to say that a noteworthy success that will increase the general welfare level of the people has been obtained.
Unemployment, as in many developing countries, is among the greatest issues in Egypt. The unemployment rate in the year 2005 has been 9 % with a fall of 0.5 % compared to the previous year. Creating employment for a population of 70 million increasing by over 2 % yearly, has been declared as the top priority of the Mubarek administration which has been hard pressed under internal ( the rise in the vote rate of the Muslim Brothers Party) and external pressures (USA and EU). During the election campaign of the President of the Republic, regarding the target of ‘creating 4.5 Million new jobs in 6 years’ which had been promised by Mubarek, rewarding the economy management of the former cabinet which has been considered as successful in the period of 18 months, has increased the number of the institutions under their administration.
Subsequent to the Presidential elections, when Ahmed Nazif, who had been Prime Minister since July 2004, was assigned on 31 December 2005 with the duty of forming the new cabinet for the second time, while the majority of the Ministries which had been related to economy preserved the positions they had in the former cabinet ; the expansion of the portfolio consisting of foreign trade and industry of Rachid Mohamed Rachid who is one of the three important Ministers in the cabinet , to include also the domestic trade , has been perceived as a vote of confidence which has been extended to him. The evaluations regarding the macro economical sizes of the 2004/2005 financial year have been explained below.
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